Tuesday, October 18, 2011

An American's Creed

An American's Creed - by Dean Alfange

I do not choose to be a common man
It is my right to be uncommon...
If I can. I seek opportunity... Not security.

I do not wish to be a kept citizen,
Humbled and dulled by having the state
look after me.

I want to take the calculated risk;
to dream and build, to
Fail and succeed.

I refuse to barter incentive for a dole.
I prefer the challenges of life to the
Guaranteed existence; the thrill of
Fulfillment to the stale calm of utopia.

I will not trade freedom for beneficence
Nor my dignity for a hand out. I will
Never cower before any master nor bend
to any threat.

It is my heritage to stand erect,
proud, and unafraid; to think and act for
myself; enjoy the benefits of my
creations; and to face the world boldly
and say, "This I have done with my own hand,
I am a man. I am an American.

Friday, October 14, 2011

Bad, Productivity! Bad!

Are Workers Too Productive?

Increased productivity is exhausting the workers?  Yet the source of the increase in productivity is tools which multiply the effects of their labor... which creates more output for the same effort. Really?  Yeah, that doesn't quite jive when you think about it...

You can find similar doom-and-gloom predictions in historical documents from the agricultural revolution and the industrial revolution (and I'll bet all the way back to the Bronze Age "Woodcutters will be WAAAAY too productive!"). Times of change often result in displaced workers, which eventually frees up enough people to shift into new or expanding industries. Productivity in one area or another may create saturation in that particular market, but I can't believe that we've exhausted the capacity of human demand. First, that doesn't mesh well with accusations of "boundless capitalist greed" and it also conveniently ignores large parts of the world where people's wants and needs for goods and services are certainly not being met.

The big factor here is globalization. Localized industries (like retail and other services) remain little changed, while easily transferred industries (like manufacturing and export) shift to developing countries. But with 15% annual salary growth in India, how long do you think it will remain profitable to shift jobs there? The short term impacts are unsettling, but the long term result will be more countries with populations that produce things that we want and that want things we produce. The alternative is to condemn entire nations of people to living in squalor and subsisting on handouts: much better to allow them the dignity of work.

Monday, October 10, 2011

Grading Solyndra on the Adoption Curve

So Solyndra goes bankrupt and the taxpayer is left holding the bag, to the tune of five-hundred million dollars ($500,000,000).  This really isn't a surprise and is a stellar example of why the free market, rather than government, is much better suited to speculative investment.  This is especially true in the case of technology.  Now, I'm a dollars and sense kind of guy, and I'll adopt "green" technologies when it makes sense.  Kinda like the commercial where all these folks are badgering this guy to "save the planet" and finally the technician says "The money you save on the washer will pay for the drier" and the guy says "Why didn't you say that in the first place?"

For example, ten years ago I looked at hybrids and there was just no way; they were too expensive.  Five years ago I looked again and I actually considered it; but the numbers still didn't quite work out.  I imagine in a few years the return on investment will be there and I'll buy some sort of low fuel consumption vehicle.  Until then, I'll keep driving my 27 mpg sedan.

This is known as the technology adoption curve:















Full Size Version

Once something becomes indisputably efficient and easy to adopt, it becomes mainstream and the majority of consumers buy it.  Until then, people buy the technology for other reasons: because it's "cool" or a status symbol, they like "new" things or because they want to make an investment (and possibly make a profit).

Those early adopters can afford to throw money away, and it's their choice to do so.  However, when government gets into the game it makes ALL of us into early adopters, whether we want to or not, whether we can afford it or not.  This sort of "venture cronyism" is a bad parody of its free-market equivalent.

I accept that businesses fail.  That doesn't bother me.  What makes me mad is that someone else forced me to cover a throw of the dice and they came out snake-eyes.
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